Understanding risk levels

Three COVID-19 risk levels

COVID-19 is expected to remain present in Tasmanian and to cause waves of infection in the community in the future.

To help people and businesses understand what they may need to do in Tasmania, we use a system with three levels based on the current level of risk in the community. By knowing this, it is easier to act when needed to reduce the risk.

There are three COVID-19 risk levels in Tasmania:

1. Low
2. Moderate
3. High

How are risk levels set?

Public Health Services continuously reviews the risk level by considering many variables, including the number of cases that have been recorded in the state.

Typically, this will mean:

• low risk = fewer than 400 new cases on average per day
• moderate risk = between 400 and 2,000 new cases on average per day
• high risk = more than 2,000 new cases on average per day.

Other data collected by Public Health and used to consider risk include the following:

• change in case numbers between weeks
• proportion of PCR laboratory test results that are positive
• number of staff in aged care and hospitals who test positive
• number of aged care resident cases in the past 7 days
• increase in outbreaks in Residential Aged Care Facilities in the week
• number of people treated with antiviral medication
• number of people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital and ICU
• number of deaths related to COVID-19
• presence or risk of new variants.

At lower risk levels, it may be less obvious that COVID-19 is circulating in the community.

When there are more cases, you may notice family and friends with COVID-19, staff away sick from work, more people wearing face masks, and Tasmanians being asked to do or even not do certain things.

Even at the lowest level COVID-19 will still be present in the community.

National COVID-19 Community Protection Framework

The Tasmanian risk level system has been developed with reference to the National COVID-19 Community Protection Framework for a COVIDSafe Australia.